What Size Solar System Makes Sense for an Average Australian Household
Most people want a simple number
If you ask ten installers what the right solar size is for an average home, you will probably get ten different answers. Not because anyone is hiding the ball, but because household energy use varies wildly.
A retired couple in a small home might use most of their power in the evening. A family with someone working from home might have steady daytime loads. Add air conditioning, poolpumps, induction cooking, or plans for an EV and the “average” shifts again.
A useful approach is to start with a sensible baseline, then adjust based on how you use electricity and what you plan to do next.
A realistic starting point: a mid-sized system
For many Australianhomes, a mid-sized rooftop solar system is often a sensible starting point. Ittends to fit on a typical roof, covers a meaningful slice of daytimeconsumption, and keeps the design flexible if you add a battery later.
Instead of picking anumber off the internet, use this simple rule: size the system to match as much of your daytime demand as you can, without relying on exporting most of the energy to the grid.
Step 1: Use your bills, then go one level deeper
Your electricity bills tell you total usage, which is useful, but it is only half the story. What matters just as much is when the energy is used.
· If you have smart meter interval data, look at your weekday daytime usage (roughly 9am to 3pm).
· Look for regular loads: work-from-home equipment, fridges, hot water, air con, pool pumps.
· Check seasonal variation. Some homes use far more electricity in summer for cooling. Others spike in winter if heating is electric.
If you do not have interval data, you can still make a decent estimate by thinking about occupancy during the day and whether big loads can be shifted into solar hours.
Step 2: Roof reality check
Roof space and roofshape are often the hidden constraint. Two houses with identical bills mighthave very different roof layouts.
· Orientation: north-facing usually yields the mostannual energy, but east and west can match morning and afternoon demand well.
· Shading: a small shaded section can drag downperformance if the array is not designed properly.
· Available area: skylights, chimneys, setbacks, androof access paths reduce usable space.
A good design uses thebest roof areas first. It is usually better to place fewer panels in strong sunthan to cram extra panels into heavily shaded sections.
Step 3: Think about the grid, not justthe roof
In many parts of Australia, export limits apply. That means the network may cap how much solar you can send back to the grid at any moment.
Export limits do not stop you installing solar, but they do change the economics of going bigger. Ifa larger system frequently hits the export cap, extra panels may deliver diminishing returns unless you also add storage or shift loads into the day.
Common household profiles and what they tend to suit
These patterns are not rules, but they help you sanity check a system size recommendation.
· Daytime-heavy homes (work from home, kids at home, daytime air con): often suit a larger solar array because more energy is used directly.
· Evening-heavy homes (out all day, cooking and heating at night): often benefit from solar plus planning for a battery rather than simply adding more panels.
· High cooling loads: solar can align well if cooling runs during the day.
· Homes planning electrification (heat pump hot water, induction, reverse-cycle heating): sizing should include future loads, not just today’s bill.
Battery or no battery: size changes either way
If you are not adding a battery now, it is still smart to design as if you might. That affects inverter selection and how you allocate roof space.
A battery can increase self-consumption by shifting solar into the evening, but it is not magic. If your solar array is too small, there may not be enough excess during the day to reliably charge the battery. If the array is oversized, the battery may fill early and you are back to exporting.
A simple sizing method you can do at home
If you like a back-of-the-envelope approach, try this. It will not replace a proper design, but it helps you understand the scale you are aiming for.
1. Take your last bill and note the total kWh used.
2. Divide by the number of days on the bill to get average daily use.
3. Ask yourself what portion of that use happens during daylight hours. Many households land somewhere between 30% and 60%, depending on occupancy and appliances.
4. Aim to cover a large share of that daytime portion with solar.
For example, a homeusing 18 kWh per day might use 8 to 10 kWh during the day if someone is home, or only 5 to 6 kWh if the house is empty until late afternoon. The solar size that makes sense for those two homes will be different.
Why your tariff matters
Two households caninstall the same system size and see different outcomes because their electricity tariff differs.
· Time-of-use tariffs: the value of shifting usage into the day can be higher, especially if peak rates are steep.
· Low feed-in tariffs: exporting excess solar pays less, which can favour right-sizing or adding a battery later.
· Controlled load hot water: some homes have off-peak circuits that change the daytime load profile.
If you are unsure what tariff you are on, check your bill or ask your retailer. It is one of the quickest ways to explain why a system recommendation makes sense.
Common upgrades that change the right solar size
Solar sizing should not be based on today only. A few common upgrades can increase electricity use quickly.
· Heat pump hot water replacing gas or resistive electric hot water.
· Reverse-cycle air conditioning used for winter heating.
· Induction cooking replacing gas.
· EV charging at home.
If any of these are on your horizon, it is often cheaper to size and design with them in mind now than to retrofit later. Even if you do not install extra panels immediately, planning roof layout and inverter capacity around future needs keeps your options open.
What “average” looks like in practice
Across Australia, it is common to see households choose a system size that fits the roof and their budget, often landing in a mid-range capacity. That mid-range is popular because it can cover baseline daytime loads and still leave room to add storage later.
If your usage is low and you are away during the day, a smaller system can still be worthwhile. If your usage is high, you may benefit from a larger array, but only if you can use a lot of the energy on-site or have a plan for storage and smart load control.
A quick checklist to avoid sizing regret
1. Confirm your daytime usage pattern, even roughly.
2. Check whether your distributor applies export limits at your address.
3. Map the roof and shading before you commit to a systemsize.
4. Factor in near-term changes: EV, heat pump hot water,switching off gas.
5. Choose a design that prioritises self-consumption, not just maximum generation.
If you want a system that still feels right five or ten years from now, sizing it around your future energy plan is usually the difference.
Practical next step
A good installer will walk you through your usage data and the roof constraints and explain the trade-offs. A clear explanation is a good sign. A quote that jumps straight to “bigger is always better” usually misses the point.
Solar is a long-term asset. The best system size is the one that fits your life, your roof, and the way your local network works.



