Current snapshot

• The AER's 2025-26 Default Market Offer, effective from 1 July 2025, lifted standing offer prices in NSW, South Australia and south east Queensland, with the sharpest residential increases in NSW.
• AEMO's Q2 2025 Quarterly Energy Dynamics reported a NEM-wide average spot price of $140/MWh, with June averaging $232/MWh after cold, still conditions.
• The AEMC's latest long-range price outlook says faster renewable buildout, transmission and electrification matter if future household energy costs are to stay manageable.

Electricity prices are talked about constantly, but a lot of that conversation is too shallow to be useful. One week the blame falls on wholesale markets. The next week it is networks, gas, policy or retailers. For people paying the bill, that can feel noisy and contradictory. The practical question is simpler: what is actually pushing costs up, how much of that pressure is temporary, and what can a home or business do about it?

Why Electricity Prices Are Rising in Australia in 2026 matters because electricity is no longer just a utility line item. It is becoming the backbone of home and business energy strategy. Once solar, batteries, EV charging, hot water electrification and smarter tariffs enter the picture, the cost of electricity shapes the value of much broader decisions. That is why looking only at the bill total is not enough.

In Australia, the current picture is clear. The Australian Energy Regulator's 2025 to 2026 Default Market Offer decision lifted standing offer prices in several regions. AEMO's market reporting has continued to show that volatility, weather, outages and network constraints still matter. The AEMC's latest long-range outlook has also made a bigger point: future affordability depends not just on today's price, but on how well the transition to renewables, storage and electrification is coordinated. So this article focuses on the pieces that actually matter, not the usual headlines.

Why this issue is front of mind in 2026

The current concern about electricity prices is not happening in a vacuum. It is grounded in recent regulatory decisions and recent market data. Those signals do not say the same thing, but together they tell a consistent story: the cost of serving customers is still under pressure, and volatility remains part of the picture.

The AER's 2025-26 Default Market Offer, effective from 1 July 2025, lifted standing offer prices in NSW, South Australia and south east Queensland, with the sharpest residential increases in NSW.

AEMO's Q2 2025 Quarterly Energy Dynamics reported a NEM-wide average spot price of $140/MWh, with June averaging $232/MWh after cold, still conditions.

The AEMC's latest long-range price outlook says faster renewable buildout, transmission and electrification matter if future household energy costs are to stay manageable.

That matters because consumers tend to experience price pressure in two ways at once. First, there are regulated or reference price movements that shape standing offers and influence market offers. Second, there are underlying system conditions, such as wholesale volatility or network constraints, that feed through to risk costs and future pricing. Good decisions need to account for both.

What is actually pushing costs higher

Retail electricity pricing is a stack, not a single number. Wholesale energy is only one component. Network costs matter because poles, wires, system strength and local constraints must still be paid for. Retail costs matter because retailers must fund operations, risk management, customer acquisition and bad debt. Environmental schemes matter because they sit inside the cost of supply. When pressure shows up across several layers at once, consumers feel it.

Most people hear one headline and assume there is a single cause, usually gas or government policy. In reality, retail bills combine wholesale energy, networks, environmental schemes, retail operations and GST.

Short periods of extreme market pricing can have an outsized effect because retailers must hedge risk, and those hedging costs flow into offers.

Households see the bill, but the timing of their usage now matters much more than it did a decade ago.

That is why headlines about one cause can be misleading. Gas market tightness can matter. Coal outages can matter. Transmission limits can matter. Hot weather or cold still weather can matter. A regulator's decision can matter. But the bill usually reflects an accumulation of pressures rather than a single dramatic event.

Why average market prices and household bills are not the same thing

A household does not usually buy electricity directly at the five-minute wholesale price. Retailers hedge those exposures using contracts. If the market becomes more volatile, those hedging costs can rise. That means a quarter with only a handful of severe price events can still influence future retail pricing. From a customer perspective, that is one reason it can feel like bills move even when average generation conditions seem to have improved.

What households and businesses can do about it

No single response suits every site, but the practical options are usually consistent. First, reduce the amount of expensive grid energy you need to buy at high-value times. Second, improve how flexible loads are timed. Third, plan future electrification so that new electrical demand can be served efficiently rather than simply added to an already stressed bill.

Rooftop solar reduces the amount of high-priced grid electricity you need to buy in the middle of the day.

Batteries can shift cheap daytime solar into the evening, when tariffs are often higher and price pressure shows up in retail offers.

Electrification works best when it is planned with the tariff, the solar profile and the future load, not as isolated upgrades.

It is also worth separating short-term and long-term responses. In the short term, tariff review and load-shifting can help. In the medium term, solar and possibly batteries become relevant. In the longer term, electrification changes the entire household or business energy budget by shifting spend away from gas and petrol.

Common mistakes when reacting to price headlines

1. Judging the market only from one quarterly wholesale number

2. Assuming every electricity bill increase means solar automatically makes sense

3. Ignoring the role of network pricing and time-based tariffs

4. Sizing a system around annual consumption without looking at time of use

A calmer approach usually wins. The right project is not necessarily the fastest one to install. It is the one that responds to the actual source of cost pressure on the site.

The longer-term view

It is tempting to treat electricity prices as a short-term frustration. That is understandable, especially when people are dealing with seasonal bill shocks. But the more useful view is that households and businesses are moving into an energy system where flexibility has real value. Timing, control and self-generation matter more than they used to. That is not only a market story. It is also a design story.

One of the reasons the AEMC shifted its reporting toward total household energy costs is that electricity is becoming a bigger share of energy spending as homes electrify. That means the effect of solar, load control, EV charging strategy and hot water scheduling can no longer be treated as side issues. They sit at the centre of affordability. A site that is set up well can absorb this change better than one that continues to buy energy in the most exposed way.

For businesses, the same logic applies in a different form. Energy is becoming a more strategic overhead. It affects margins, forecasting confidence and sometimes customer expectations around decarbonisation. That is why the best response to rising prices is rarely a single gadget. It is a better energy system.

What to do before making a solar or battery decision

Start with the bill, but do not stop there. Look at the tariff structure, the timing of your highest usage, and any planned changes in the next few years. If you are thinking about an EV, hot water replacement, reverse-cycle heating, new tenancy patterns or longer operating hours, they all matter. An energy decision made from a static picture can be technically sound and still wrong for the next stage of the property.

The next step is to separate no-cost, low-cost and capital responses. No-cost actions include tariff review and simple behaviour changes. Low-cost actions may include timers, controls or metering improvements. Capital responses include solar, batteries, electrification upgrades and switchboard work. This sequence matters because it avoids solving a timing problem with an expensive hardware answer when a simpler change would have captured part of the value.

Finally, compare options using a few grounded scenarios rather than a single perfect-case estimate. A conservative case, a typical case and a future-electric case will usually reveal far more than one headline savings number. That is particularly true in a market where both retail offers and household or business energy use are evolving.

A practical decision checklist

Before you respond to rising prices with a purchase, check four things. First, what part of your bill is actually hurting? For some sites it is rising daytime energy. For others it is evening imports, winter heating, demand peaks or a growing transport fuel bill that will soon become an electricity bill. Second, what is likely to change in the next few years? A household planning an EV or a business planning longer operating hours should not design for the past.

Third, what can be solved with better timing rather than more hardware? This matters because time-of-use tariffs, controlled loads and flexible appliances can sometimes unlock savings that reduce the size or urgency of a capital project. Fourth, what role do you want the grid to keep playing? Some customers want the lowest practical bills. Others place more value on backup, resilience or reduced gas exposure. The right answer depends on that objective.

If those points are clear, the energy decision becomes much easier. Instead of reacting to headlines, you are designing a response to your own cost profile. That is a much better position for solar, batteries or electrification planning.

Example of how this changes a real decision

Take a household that has rising evening consumption, an ageing gas hot water system and a likely EV purchase in the next two years. If that household reads only a headline about rising electricity prices, it may assume the answer is to install the biggest solar system it can afford straight away. That could help, but it may not be the best sequence. A better sequence might be to review the tariff first, size solar around future daytime opportunity, plan for hot water electrification, and then assess whether battery storage becomes valuable once the evening load is clearer.

Now take a small business that is open during the day, has refrigeration or HVAC loads, and is starting to see more complex tariff structures. That business may initially think its problem is simply expensive electricity. In reality, the bigger issue might be that short intervals of high demand are shaping the bill. Solar may still be part of the answer, but the design brief will be stronger if the business understands the cost mechanism first.

In both cases the lesson is the same. Rising prices do not point to one universal fix. They point to the need for better diagnosis. When the site understands what the bill is reacting to, solar, storage and electrification become far easier to evaluate properly.

One last point, price pressure is not the same as emergency

Rising prices understandably create urgency, but urgency does not always need to mean rushing into the first available hardware decision. In energy, the strongest projects are usually built from a clear view of timing, load and future change. That is especially true now that homes and businesses are becoming more electrified and more flexible.

The practical takeaway is simple. Use current market conditions as a reason to review the whole energy picture, not as a reason to skip that review. People who do that usually make better decisions and keep more of the value over the life of the system.

How Decarby Solar approaches this topic

At Decarby Solar, these discussions usually start well before a customer asks for a quote. We help people separate the headline from the practical decision. That means looking at the tariff, the load profile, likely future electrification, and whether solar or storage will solve the real cost problem rather than the obvious one.

Frequently asked questions

Are higher wholesale prices the only reason bills rise?

No. Retail bills are built from wholesale energy, networks, retail costs, environmental scheme costs, metering and GST. Wholesale moves matter, but they are only one part of the stack.

Will electricity prices always keep rising?

Not in a straight line. Prices can ease in some periods and spike in others. The bigger issue is volatility. That uncertainty is one reason solar and storage are becoming more attractive.

Does solar protect every household equally?

No. Savings depend on daytime consumption, export rules, tariff structure, roof suitability and whether a battery or further electrification is planned.

Related reading on Decarby

• Solar and battery rebates (ACT, NSW, Federal)
• Estimate your solar savings
• When solar batteries make financial sense in Australia
• Federal solar incentives explained
• ACT solar and battery rebates explained

Sources

1. AER: Final determination on 2025-26 safety net prices
2. AEMO: Quarterly Energy Dynamics Q2 2025 (PDF)
3. AEMC: Faster renewable buildout and electrification are key to affordable energy
4. AER: State of the Energy Market 2025
5. energy.gov.au: Solar Consumer Guide

Why NSW Homes Are Well Suited to Solar and Battery Systems

New South Wales has become one of the most active solar markets in Australia, and the reasons are fairly practical. Strong solar conditions, rising electricity prices, and changes to how energy is priced have all shifted the equation for homeowners.

For many households, solar is no longer just about reducing daytime electricity costs. The conversation has moved towards solar battery systems in NSW, especially as export limits and lower feed-in tariffs reduce the value of sending energy back to the grid.

At the same time, interest in solar battery rebate programs in NSW is growing, as homeowners look for ways to reduce upfront costs while improving long-term energy outcomes.

The key point is this: NSW is well suited to solar, but the real value comes from how the system is designed and how well it matches the way energy is used in the home.

Why Solar Performs Well in NSW Conditions

NSW has a dependable solar resource across both metropolitan and regional areas. While coastal regions like Sydney experience some cloud cover, annual solar production remains strong enough to support consistent system performance.

Most homes can generate a meaningful portion of their daily electricity needs through rooftop solar alone.

What This Looks Like in Practice

• Reliable solar generation across most of the year
• Strong summer output that aligns with cooling demand
• Consistent annual performance even with seasonal variation

In many NSW homes, system design matters more than perfect orientation. East-west panel layouts are often used to extend generation into the morning and late afternoon, which better matches real household usage.

High Electricity Prices in NSW Are Driving Solar Adoption

Electricity pricing in NSW has shifted significantly over time. Time-of-use tariffs mean that electricity used in the evening can cost substantially more than during the day.

This is where solar starts to make a noticeable difference.

How Solar and Batteries Reduce Energy Costs

• Solar offsets daytime electricity purchases
• Batteries reduce reliance on peak evening tariffs
• Households become less exposed to price increases

Feed-in tariffs are now relatively low in most parts of NSW. In many cases, exported energy is worth only a fraction of what electricity costs to buy later.

This is one of the main reasons why solar battery systems in NSW are becoming more relevant.

Solar Battery Systems in NSW Are Becoming More Practical

Battery storage changes how solar energy is used. Instead of exporting excess generation during the day, that energy can be stored and used later when electricity prices are higher.

This becomes particularly important in NSW due to both pricing structures and network constraints.

Where Batteries Typically Make Sense

• Homes with higher evening or overnight energy use
• Households running air conditioning into the evening
• Electric vehicle charging outside solar hours
• Properties with limited export capacity

Typical Battery Benefits

• Increased use of your own solar energy
• Reduced reliance on the grid during peak periods
• Optional backup capability depending on system design
• Better overall use of generated electricity

In many cases, batteries are less about maximising solar production and more about improving how that energy is used.

Solar Battery Rebates in NSW and What They Actually Mean

Interest in solar battery rebates in NSW has increased as governments look to support energy storage adoption. These programs can reduce upfront costs, but they do not automatically make every battery installation worthwhile.

How Solar Battery Rebates Affect Decisions

• They can lower the initial investment
• They may improve payback in certain scenarios
• They make battery systems more accessible

However, rebates should be treated as a secondary factor. The underlying value of a battery still depends on how much stored energy is used within the home.

In NSW, batteries tend to deliver better outcomes when there is strong evening demand or when export limits reduce the value of excess solar.

NSW Grid Constraints Are Changing System Design

A key factor often overlooked is how local network conditions affect solar performance.

Across NSW, many homes are subject to export limits. A common limit is around 5kW per phase, even if the installed solar system is significantly larger.

What This Means in Practice

• Not all generated solar energy can be exported
• Larger systems may produce more energy than can be used or exported
• Financial returns from exports are reduced

This is one of the main reasons system design has shifted. Instead of focusing purely on system size, there is more emphasis on how energy is consumed or stored.

In this context, solar battery systems in NSW can help retain value that would otherwise be lost through export limitations.

NSW Homes Are Generally Well Suited to Solar Installation

Housing across NSW is typically favourable for solar. Detached homes with usable roof space are common, making it easier to install effective systems.

Common Characteristics of Suitable Homes

• Roof space capable of supporting 6.6kW to 10kW systems or larger
• Roof pitches that allow efficient solar generation
• Lower shading impact in many suburban areas

Older homes can still support solar, although electrical upgrades or roof improvements may be required depending on the condition of the property.

Incentives Play a Role, But They Are Not the Main Driver

Federal incentives such as Small-scale Technology Certificates continue to reduce the upfront cost of solar. These are generally already included in system pricing.

At a state level, solar battery rebate programs in NSW may be available, although eligibility and structure can change over time.

Practical Perspective on Incentives

• They can improve upfront affordability
• They should not determine whether a system is installed
• Long-term performance matters more than short-term savings

With feed-in tariffs continuing to decline, the focus has shifted towards using energy within the home rather than exporting it.

Electrification Is Increasing the Value of Solar and Batteries

Energy use in NSW homes is changing. More households are moving towards electric appliances and transport, which increases overall electricity demand.

Common upgrades include:

• Heat pump hot water systems
• Induction cooking
• Reverse cycle air conditioning
• Electric vehicle charging

Why This Changes System Value

• Daytime solar can support appliances and EV charging
• Evening demand increases, making batteries more useful
• Grid reliance becomes more expensive without solar

As homes electrify, the gap between when energy is generated and when it is used becomes more noticeable. Batteries help bridge that gap.

System Design Has a Bigger Impact Than Location

Even with favourable conditions in NSW, system performance is heavily influenced by design decisions.

Two similar homes can see very different outcomes depending on how their systems are configured.

Key Design Considerations

• Panel orientation and layout
• Inverter type and system configuration
• Battery size relative to household demand
• Daily energy usage patterns

It is common to see systems oversized for export in areas with network limits, which reduces their effectiveness. Matching system size to actual usage tends to deliver better long-term results.

Practical Insights from Decarby Solar

Decarby Solar works with NSW homeowners to design systems that reflect how energy is actually used, rather than relying on theoretical production figures.

In many cases, households install larger solar systems expecting strong export returns, only to find that network limits reduce their value. Adjusting system size or integrating battery storage often produces a more balanced outcome.

Homes with strong evening demand, particularly those using air conditioning or charging electric vehicles, tend to benefit more from battery integration than from additional solar capacity alone.

This approach focuses on achieving consistent, practical performance rather than relying on ideal assumptions.

Is a Solar Battery System Worth It in NSW?

The value of a solar battery system in NSW depends on how the home uses energy and what the household is trying to achieve.

Solar Alone May Be Suitable If

• Most electricity is used during the day
• Exporting excess energy is acceptable
• Lower upfront cost is a priority

Solar and Battery Systems May Be Suitable If

• Energy use is higher in the evening
• Reducing grid reliance is a priority
• Backup capability is important
• A solar battery rebate in NSW is available and applicable

Batteries are becoming more relevant in NSW, not because solar is less effective, but because electricity pricing and network conditions have changed.

What Determines a High-Performing Solar System in NSW

Most homes in NSW are already suitable for solar. The difference between an average system and a well-performing one usually comes down to design and usage alignment.

Accurate sizing, understanding when electricity is used, and accounting for export limits will have a greater impact than simply installing more panels.

When these factors are properly aligned, solar and battery systems in NSW can deliver consistent, long-term value, regardless of whether a solar battery rebate is available at the time of installation.

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Solar Panels in Canberra: Why the ACT Is Ideal for Solar and Home Batteries

Canberra has become one of Australia’s leading regions for rooftop solar adoption. Across the ACT, thousands of homeowners have installed solar panels through professional solar panel installation in Canberra, and many are adding battery storage to maximise the value of their solar energy.

Several local factors make solar panels in Canberra particularly effective. The region benefits from strong solar exposure, relatively modern housing design, a growing shift toward electrified homes, and electricity prices that encourage households to generate their own power.

For many Canberra households, solar is no longer viewed as a simple home upgrade. It is becoming the foundation of a broader energy system that may include battery storage, electric vehicles, heat pump hot water systems, and efficient electric heating.

Understanding why solar and solar battery systems in Canberra perform so well helps explain why the ACT continues to lead the transition toward electrified homes.

Canberra’s Climate Provides Excellent Solar Generation

Despite experiencing colder winters than many Australian cities, Canberra has a strong solar resource. The ACT receives high levels of solar irradiation throughout the year, which allows rooftop solar systems to generate consistent electricity. (Canberra’s Climate Provides Excellent Solar Generation)

Average solar irradiation in Canberra generally ranges between 4.5 and 5.2 kWh per square metre per day across the year. These levels are more than sufficient for strong residential solar generation.

Another advantage is the local climate. Solar panels tend to perform more efficiently in moderate temperatures compared with extremely hot conditions.

Typical solar conditions in Canberra include:

• A high number of clear sky days each year
• Lower humidity compared with coastal climates
• Cooler daytime temperatures that help improve panel efficiency
• Strong solar production in spring and summer
• Reliable winter generation during clear days

For a typical Canberra home, a well designed 6.6 kW solar system can produce around 24 to 28 kWh per day on average across the year. Larger systems installed on suitable roofs can generate significantly more.

Solar panels from manufacturers such as Jinko, Trina, JA Solar, and Aiko are widely used in Australian installations because they deliver strong performance across varying seasonal conditions.

Why Canberra Homes Are Well Suited for Solar Installations

Canberra has several advantages when it comes to residential solar installations. Compared with many older Australian cities, a large proportion of homes in the ACT were built relatively recently and often have roof designs that work well for solar panels.

Many suburbs feature properties with:

• Large roof areas suitable for multiple panel arrays
• Minimal shading from neighbouring buildings
• Wide suburban blocks with strong sun exposure
• Roof orientations that capture north or north west sunlight

Many homes across suburbs such as Gungahlin, Belconnen and Tuggeranong are well suited for solar panel installation in Canberra ACT, thanks to large roof areas and strong sun exposure

This allows installers to design larger systems that maximise energy production throughout the day.

Roof materials also support solar installation. Many Canberra homes use concrete tile or metal roofing, both of which can support reliable solar mounting systems when installed correctly.

As electrification increases, many households are installing systems larger than the traditional 6.6 kW configuration. Systems between 8 kW and 13 kW are becoming increasingly common for homes planning future electricity demand from electric vehicles or heat pump hot water systems.

Electricity Prices Encourage Solar Self Generation

Electricity prices in the ACT have increased steadily over the past decade. As energy costs rise, more households are turning to solar panels to produce their own electricity.

Solar systems allow homes to generate power during daylight hours rather than importing electricity from the grid.

When solar generation exceeds household demand, the surplus electricity can be exported or stored in a battery.

Installing a Canberra solar battery system allows homeowners to store excess solar energy and use it later in the evening when electricity demand is typically higher.

Some households also explore financing programs and incentives that support electrification upgrades. Our ACT solar rebate and battery incentives guide explains how these programs work in practice.

Electrification Is Accelerating Across the ACT

Another factor driving the growth of solar panels and batteries in Canberra is the region’s increasing focus on electrification.

Many households are moving away from gas appliances and replacing them with electric alternatives.

Common electrification upgrades include:

• Heat pump hot water systems
• Reverse cycle air conditioning
• Induction cooking
• Electric vehicles
• Home EV charging systems

These changes increase electricity consumption, but they also create opportunities to power homes using rooftop solar.

For example, a solar system can help supply electricity for daytime EV charging or heating loads. When combined with a battery, excess solar generation can also support evening household demand.

This shift toward fully electric homes is one of the key reasons solar adoption continues to grow across the ACT.

Why Solar Batteries Are Increasingly Popular in Canberra

Solar batteries are becoming an important addition to many Canberra solar systems.

During sunny days, rooftop solar panels often generate more electricity than a household can immediately use. Without a battery, this energy is usually exported to the grid.

A battery allows households to store surplus solar energy and use it later in the evening.

Benefits of installing a solar battery in Canberra include:

• Higher self consumption of solar energy
• Reduced reliance on grid electricity during evening hours
• Greater control over household energy usage
• Potential backup power capability depending on system configuration

As Canberra households install larger solar systems and increase electricity usage through electrification, batteries can help manage how that solar energy is used throughout the day.

Solar Export Limits and Grid Conditions in the ACT

Like many regions with high rooftop solar adoption, parts of the ACT electricity network are experiencing periods of high daytime solar generation.

When many homes export electricity at the same time, local network infrastructure can experience voltage rise or export limitations.

In some areas, new solar systems may have export limits depending on network capacity.

Solar battery systems can help address this issue by storing excess solar energy within the home rather than exporting it to the grid.

This improves solar self consumption and reduces dependence on export payments, which can change over time.

For households installing larger solar systems, battery storage is becoming an important part of managing solar energy effectively.

Designing Solar Systems for Canberra Homes

Choosing the right system size is important. A detailed solar system size guide for Australian homes explains how electricity usage, roof space and electrification plans influence system design.

Important design factors include:

• Roof orientation and tilt
• Shading from nearby trees or buildings
• Panel layout and system size
• Inverter selection
• Future battery integration
• Electrical capacity for EV charging or heating systems

Winter sun angles in Canberra are lower than in northern parts of Australia. This means roof orientation and shading can have a greater influence on winter solar production.

Modern inverter systems from manufacturers such as Fronius, GoodWe, Sungrow, Enphase and FoxESS allow homeowners to monitor solar generation, manage battery usage and track household energy consumption.

These systems make it easier to optimise how solar energy is used throughout the home.

Decarby Solar’s Experience with Canberra Solar Installations

At Decarby Solar, many solar installation projects involve helping Canberra homeowners plan systems that support long term electrification.

Across the ACT, households are increasingly preparing for electric vehicles, heat pump hot water systems and higher electricity consumption from fully electric homes.

Designing solar systems with future demand in mind often means installing larger systems and selecting inverter platforms that allow battery integration later.

Solar projects in Canberra commonly involve:

• Designing solar systems around complex roof layouts
• Managing winter shading from nearby trees
• Preparing systems for future solar battery installation
• Allowing electrical capacity for EV charging infrastructure

This approach helps ensure that a solar system installed today can support the home’s energy needs well into the future.

The Future of Solar and Battery Systems in Canberra

Canberra is expected to remain one of Australia’s strongest regions for solar adoption.

Several long term trends are supporting continued growth:

• Increasing electrification of homes and transport
• Rising electricity costs
• Improvements in battery technology
• Smart energy management systems
• Continued interest in reducing household emissions

For many households in the ACT, solar panels are becoming the foundation of a broader home energy system that includes batteries, electric vehicles and efficient electric appliances.

As technology continues to evolve, the integration of solar generation, battery storage and electrified homes will continue to shape how Canberra households produce and manage their electricity.

FAQ About Solar in Canberra

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